Source: Embraer

Embraer has published its 20-year Market Outlook for the sub-150 seat commercial aircraft segment. The report presents global and regional analyses and trends that will influence the demand for new jets and turboprops through 2041.

These included:

Demand Growth and Recovery

Worldwide demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) will grow 3.2% annually (CAGR) over the next two decades. This is slightly less than the 3.3% rate forecast last year. The weaker growth reflects a near-term deceleration of the global economy, follow-on effects from the pandemic, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

RPKs are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024.

Digitalization and Regionalization

The trends to increased digitalization (work-from-home, video-conferencing) and regionalization (re-shoring to localize production) that emerged at the onset of the pandemic will continue. These will drive demand for smaller-capacity aircraft.

A Focus on Fleet Flexibility and the Transition to Green Technologies

Matching capacity to demand is the most sustainable way to capture the growth opportunities in the post-pandemic world. New green technologies tend to focus on smaller-capacity aircraft where innovations are refined before introduction on larger platforms. In this context smaller airplanes are a key element for more sustainable air travel while also enhancing connectivity.

E-Commerce & Passenger to Freighter Conversions

The explosive growth in e-commerce is opening new markets for smaller-capacity all-cargo jet aircraft and driving demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

New Aircraft Deliveries – By the Numbers

  • Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats
  • 8,670  jets
  • 2,280  turboprops
  • Total: 10,950  units
  • Market value of all new aircraft: USD 650 billion

Annual RPK growth rate – ranked by region

  • 4.3% Asia Pacific (includes China)
  • 4.0% Latin America
  • 3.8% Africa
  • 3.2% Global Average
  • 3.2% Middle East
  • 2.3% Europe
  • 2.0% North America

RPK share by end of 2041

  • 42% Asia Pacific
  • 38% Europe + North America

Jet deliveries –  8,670 (% share)

  • 2,740 North America ( 31.6%)
  • 2,230 Asia Pacific ( 25.7%)
  • 2,320 Europe & CIS ( 26.8%)
  • 750 Latin America  ( 8.7%)
  • 330 Middle East ( 3.8%)
  • 300 Africa ( 3.5%)

Turboprop deliveries – 2,280(% share)

  • 960 Asia Pacific (42.1%)
  • 500 Europe & CIS (21.9%)
  • 400 North America (17.5%)
  • 200 Africa (8.8%)
  • 180 Latin America (7.9%)
  • 40 Middle East (1.8%)

Download the complete 2022 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the six world regions, at www.embraermarketoutlook2022.com