By Exequiel Sanhueza*
Have you ever wondered what the relationship is between current aviation and space debris? Although for many people these topics may seem distant, they are actually more connected than we can imagine. Space debris or junk, made up of artificial objects that orbit the Earth and that have ceased to be utilized, represents a growing challenge today. In this article, I will address how both concepts are intertwined and why their relationship is increasingly relevant for the safety of those who inhabit the planet and for air operations.
The symbolism of the sky and the threat from space
Since ancient times, heaven has been seen as a space of power and mystery. In Greek mythology, Zeus, the king of all gods, used lightning as his main weapon, a symbol of strength, justice and divine punishment, which descended from the sky. Thus, ancient civilizations have associated the sky with forces capable of impacting life on Earth.
A contemporary danger: space debris
Today, the threat is no longer mythical, but tangible. Space debris represents a constant danger, especially for aviation. This scrap is made up of satellites and rocket fragments, pieces detached from spacecraft, screws, tools, paint and debris from explosions or collisions between satellites, which can travel at speeds exceeding 25,000 km/h. With more than 14,000 tons of debris orbiting the Earth and more than 100,000 commercial aircraft in flight on a daily basis, the risk of impact becomes significant and forces us to reflect on the possible consequences and the need for coordinated actions in the short term.
International Approaches and Actions
ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) fully recognizes the risk that space debris poses to aviation. Therefore, it promotes an intersectoral approach that covers the regulation of space activities, the analysis of the level of acceptable risk and the adoption of responsible and sustainable practices to mitigate the problem.
NASA (United States) recognizes the real risks during uncontrolled re-entries and, together with the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), has established temporary no-fly zones when large objects re-enter the atmosphere. Although they consider that the risk for commercial aircraft is very low, they admit that it is not zero, especially on transoceanic routes or when flying over remote areas.
In turn, the ESA (European Space Agency) states that the risk to aircraft, although low, is not negligible. For this reason, it has systems called REentry Prediction and EDeorbit to track objects that could re-enter dangerously. In addition, it collaborates with ICAO to share real-time data with air control centers on the trajectories of space debris.
The CNSA (China) has been criticized for launches such as those of the Long March 5B rocket, whose re-entries are uncontrolled and trajectories are often not published sufficiently in advance, which increases uncertainty for civil aviation authorities.
Japan’s JAXA is working on technologies to safely deorbit satellites, using braking sails and drag systems, with the aim of avoiding risks during re-entry. Also, it collaborates in international programs to improve early notification of dangerous readmissions.
Finally, Roscosmos (Russia) has taken few control measures over the fragmentation or reentry of space debris. However, it works with the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) to improve reporting of hazardous events.
Current risks and prospects
The problem of space debris continues to be a danger for aircraft, since fragments that survive re-entry pass through airspace without warning. The lack of sufficient international coordination to avoid active flight routes increases the risk, especially as both the amount of space debris and the number of aircraft in flight are increasing.
According to ESA, about 80,000 kilos of space debris enter the atmosphere per year; This is equivalent to an average of about 220 kg per day. Likewise, this Agency reports that at least three large and intact objects, such as parts of rockets or satellites out of use, re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere every day.
The responsible management of satellites
Recent news highlights that Starlink will begin a program to deorbit first-generation satellites that have reached the end of their useful life, thus allowing replacement with newer models. Currently, Starlink’s fleet consists of about 8,000 satellites. The company has assured that these satellites will re-enter in a controlled and safe manner, preventing them from becoming orbital debris.
Notwithstanding the above, the threats will continue since it has been anticipated that multiple companies are competing to deploy mega constellations, which is why projections suggest that more than 60,000 satellites could be in orbit by 2040.